By next Saturday, we will know all there is to about Jaswant Singh's first and the Vajpayee government's sixth Budget (counting the first Vajpayee government as well).

Looking back, what strikes one is how little the system has changed in this period  -- other than the business of presenting the Budget at a more sensible time.

Yes, some tax rates have gone up and down, and some exemptions have come in and others gone out, but the tariff levels are broadly where they were, the number of excise and customs rates have come down somewhat but are still too many, and even the deficit is broadly in the same ballpark range.

This is not a great commentary in an area where we need change, and not more of the same.

The change we do have at this stage is a new finance minister; and he has the near-impossible job of repairing government finances without upsetting people as elections near.

And matters are not helped by the general expectation that he is going to hand out goodies to all and sundry, most importantly to an impatient and assertive middle class. No one seems to be asking the question: Who is going to pay for spreading good cheer?

The answer at this stage of the guessing game is: No one in particular is going to be asked to pay anything, other than perhaps for energy.

The smoke signals suggest that the minister is going to focus instead on cutting expenditure, and bridge the fiscal gap by moving the mountain instead of Mohammed.

I have no quarrel with that, given the wastefulness of so much government expenditure, but I would have expected the finance minister to do the all-important thing of dampening hopes, so that people are not unpleasantly surprised by whatever is in store.

If we go beyond the business of new taxes and giveaways, we know that this year's will be a significant Budget for at least two reasons.

First, the Centre-State tax system will finally move towards the much-discussed and long-delayed VAT (value added tax) system. The difficult business of getting the states to agree to the ground rules has been achieved, the Centre has promised to guarantee that no state will lose out as a result, and what remains is to administer the new scheme so that leakages don't bring the whole thing into question and disrepute.

The second reason why this year's Budget will be different is that we have the Kelkar reports before us. The Prime Minister has said that the reports will be only partially implemented, which is what one would expect.

Vijay Kelkar himself has pegged away gamely at gaining acceptance for his reports, and the remarkable thing is that he has met with considerable success after the storm of protest that first greeted the reports.

A Kelkar prediction made at the height of the heated debate seems to be coming true: his reports may not be accepted in one shot, but they will become the benchmark by which Budgets will be judged for the next few years.

If you read the reports, you understand why. Because what strikes you more than anything else is that the reports are not written from the perspective of an accountant, or a fiscal economist, or a tax expert.

They are written from the perspective of the tax payer. What are his issues, what bothers him, how can things be made better? So a good deal of the focus is on procedure, simplification, reducing hassles, computerisation.

It is also written from the perspective of people who look at other societies and how they handle tax matters, and this international bench-marking brings to the reports a contemporary reality that is refreshing.

One may disagree with some of the specific recommendations -- as many fiscal experts do. But it is difficult to argue with the kind of tax system the reports seek to bring about.

And if in this Budget and the next (the Vajpayee government's last), the tax system and administration do get more citizen-friendly, then the Kelkar reports will have served a very useful purpose indeed.