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Winter of discontent

Conventional wisdom, applicable in conventional times, dictates that any federal administration in a nation of India's parameters goes through a honeymoon phase of around two to three years. Rajiv Gandhi was unlucky in that his good ol' times with the voters lasted two years while his illustrious grandfather was an unparalleled hit with the electorate for more than 10 years.

The younger Gandhi's successors were even more unfortunate. Their honeymoons, like their political careers, were mere flashes in the pan.

But these surely are not conventional times -- at least, not politically. India is undergoing a phase when its voters find themselves faced with choices they cannot make, which is reflected in the fractured mandate they have been handing out. A tectonic shift is going on in the body politic that is reducing peaks to valleys and raising mountains from molehills. The Bharatiya Janata Party is trying to harness the forces working within to its advantage, and so far has managed to hang on there by the skin of its teeth.

Six months is hardly time to judge any administration, especially one that is encumbered by such a large number of disparate allies, all seeking their moments of fame, squabbling over their pound of flesh. But where the human heart indulges in a little compassion and looks around for mitigating circumstances, the elements seem to be conspiring against the BJP-led government. In fact, the BJP will be facing fury this winter like none of its predecessors in the past, and it will be a miracle if it comes through the ordeal.

That there is a lot of goodwill left for this government, thanks in no small measure to the man it chose to lead the nation, cannot be disputed. But even men of destiny suffer from limitations, as Atal Bihari Vajpayee is realising of late. Overweening colleagues and allies, a nit-picking opposition and a lurching economy should be enough to give the most doughty among us the heebie-jeebies. Since any successor administration will be functioning within the same framework, it should explain the lack of enthusiasm so far displayed by the only political party that can bring down this government.

Thus, for the first time since Indian democracy has been keeping its tryst with the voters, the TINA factor is no longer a badge of achievement, to be displayed proudly. There Is No Alternative to the Vajpayee government, true, but it has nothing to do with the stature of either the person or the job he holds. If anything, we are witnesses to the unusual spectacle of an opposition leader shunning entreaties to form an alternative government. Obviously, numbers are not the issue here, issues are.

Conventional wisdom in these unconventional times also has it that the BJP government would be brought down after the November assembly election. That the outcome in the election is not going to be of the BJP's liking is evident. Rajasthan seems set to slip out of the BJP's grasp, and it does not look like Delhi will do differently despite the change at the helm.

Personally, I don't think the reverses in November will lead to Vajpayee being replaced by Sonia Gandhi or her acolyte, but it is not a viewpoint shared by even the BJP camp. This is not a party that does things in half-measures, at least that is not the image it has so far cultivated. To see such a party change horses end-stream, postpone a scheduled Cabinet expansion because it is not sure of the fallout come November, is an edifying experience. Obviously, power, and the attempt to retain it, makes parties do strange things.

The certain electoral debacle in two states could be partly offset by the results from Madhya Pradesh. If the BJP is able to dethrone Digvijay Singh, it could effectively mute demands for its ouster made on the ground that it had lost public faith.

But the electoral result, combined with the newfound upward mobility of onion prices, could severely dent the BJP's claim to provide an able administration. Ultimately, regardless of all other factors, the BJP's performance will be determined on the basis of the price of this one single commodity. For it needs no special genius to divine that the skyrocketing onion prices have quite a lot to do with trader tactics, or that the trading lobby and the BJP share a cozy relationship. The longer the onion prices remain out of reach, the impression that the BJP is deliberately not doing anything to control the situation would gain ground.

But as I said, the winter months will put the BJP through the wringer, but will stop just short of pulling it down. Despite the adverse mandate from the electorate, despite this government's proven inability to rein in prices, despite the periodic shocks from intractable allies, an alternative formation will not come into being. Because the same set of factors that are inhibiting Sonia Gandhi's Congress from taking the plunge today will continue to remain in force.

Sonia Gandhi is held back by the unwelcome prospect of seeking the support of unsavoury characters and ideological dinosaurs to have a tilt at governance, not to mention handing over the reins of power to someone else from her party. Even if she overcomes these and sets out to provide meaningful governance, she will realise soon that the same set of constraints that tied up Vajpayee apply to her as well. There is no point being an alternative if you can't be different, she may well have told herself.

Her lack of will translates into a continuing lease of life for Vajpayee, terminable as and when he wants to. And that can be done when he decides to go back to the people for a new mandate, but again, to be able to seek one, his progress card needs to show achievements superior to conducting nuclear blasts, show success in tackling bread and butter issues like onion prices.

So far there has been little to write home about this government. Magical September, when the economy was to have been jumpstarted, has come and gone, but the expected road signs to recovery have not made their appearance as yet. If October is harsh, there is no reason to believe that November will be any more forgiving.

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Saisuresh Sivaswamy