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DMK alliance has it smooth thus far

With the MDMK accepting 21 seats and the Bharatiya Janata Party too sacrificing two of its original 23, the DMK alliance in Tamil Nadu has had smooth-sailing in seat-sharing negotiations thus far.

Belying fears of its allies and contrary to the long drawn-out negotiations in the rival AIADMK combine, the Pondicherry issue is yet to be sorted out. The DMK has made a success of its 'stability card', which may have some impact on voters in the absence of a live electoral issue.

If a section of the MDMK cadres had reacted emotionally to media reports of the party being side-lined, there was help from within, by a section of the founding fathers of the party general secretary Vaiko's meeting with DMK founder and erstwhile mentor, M Karunanidhi, which was a smooth affair.

While the DMK was keen on not smudging the stability factor in, the MDMK did not want to upset the National Democratic Alliance apple-cart, particularly in the light of the hassles in Delhi, read with the exit of the PMK ally in the state.

"The tehelka.com issue could not have come up at a better moment for the DMK leadership," says an alliance leader. "True, at a different level, it may have tried to take the sheen off the BJP's image on the moral front, but it stressed the need for cohesion in the state NDA. Anything contrary to a peaceful deal on seat-sharing would have been interpreted differently in the current context, and Vaiko was alive to the possibilities that needed to be ended, both within and outside his party."

It is with this in mind that the state BJP also "rose to the occasion", says the source.

"With the BJP and the MDMK seeking the second place in the state NDA after the exit of the PMK, the former got an early lead by sealing a pact for 23 seats in the very first round."

The DMK was aware of the MDMK's suspicions and claims in this respect, flowing particularly from the shoddy and shrewd treatment at the hand of the parent party during seat-sharing talks for the Lok Sabha polls of 1999.

A section of the DMK leadership also felt that the "BJP does not deserve 23 seats", but with pressure mounting from the top, the Karunanidhi leadership had little option. "It would have been a graceless act to decline the request," muses a DMK leader, pointing out that "despite the BJP's final demand for 30 seats, we brought it down to 23."

"The tehelka tapes that may have influenced the state BJP, to act like a statesman and give up two seats, when sought by the DMK leader of the coalition."

This means that at 21, the BJP would share the number two position in the NDA with the MDMK. "We have no problems on that count," says a BJP leader in Madras. "We had rushed to the aid of the MDMK in 1999, by sacrificing a seat, to save the self-respect of Vakio and the MDMK. Now again, our leadership has acted with natural self-confidence and poise, realising our responsibilities and contribution to the success of the combine in the state."

Indications are that the BJP leadership is playing for the long-term. The party hopes to be a major player in state politics in time for the next assembly polls, due in 2006. In between, too, there would be the Lok Sabha polls, due in 2004, if not earlier.

"We are behaving like a tactful leader, and a trustworthy ally, which different regional parties cannot expect from each other, whatever be the combination." To that extent, even the DMK leadership of the state NDA feels relieved and is thankful to the BJP for giving up its unique number two position and also two of its seats.

With the DMK having cleared most hurdles in seat-sharing, the party is now faced with minor allies like the Dalit-strong Puthiya Thamizhagam, which is insisting on seat allocation in two-digits. The DMK would like parity between the Puthiya Thamizhagam and the Dalit Panthers, another ally, which has settled for seven seats. As DMK sources pointed out, "The Panthers would be contesting on our rising sun symbol, unlike the Puthiya Thamizhagam, which has its own symbol."

This has made a higher allocation for the Puthiya Thamizhagam that much more difficult, given the DMK's overall strategy to contest close to the 167 seats it holds in the outgoing assembly. Party strategists say that this may be a way of the DMK winning over the voter's confidence, as the only outfit capable of winning 118 seats for forming a stable government on its own.

Against this, they point out, "The AIADMK is contesting only in 141 seats, which would make an absolute majority on its own a near impossibility, and a coalition the only possibility on their side. This goes against AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha's mantra for a stable government under a strong leader. And the cohesion with which the DMK allies negotiated seat-sharing would remind voters that like the Vajpayee Government at the Centre, the NDA combine in the state would provide a stable government, if a coalition became unavoidable."

That way, allies of the DMK do not seem to rule out such a possibility, in private. While the DMK may have an upper hand in the number of seats, some NDA sources point out that the rate of electoral success are higher for them all, compared to the ruling party. The DMK also has this in mind while concluding seat-sharing talks "with the kind of grace and poise unknown to the party ", an ally pointed out.

"The DMK now realises that it depends more on its allies to keep the AIADMK combine out of power."

DMK allies attribute such a coalition possibility to various factors, including the late entry of estranged Tamil Maanila Congress leader and former Union finance minister P Chidambaram, into the NDA fold in some form.

"While the DMK would have to provide seven or eight seats to Chidambaram's followers from its quota, in the post-poll scenario, they would have to be counted in more as allies, than as DMK men," said the source.

As he pointed out, "Apart from the Puthiya Thamizhagam, the DMK will also have to provide seats for two long-term allies like the MGR ADMK and the MGR Kazhagam, and the New Justice Party of AIADMK dissident, A Shanmugam."

The MGR ADMK and the MGR Kazhagam have sought parity, and also more seats than the Makkal Thamizh Desam of yet another former AIADMK minister, S Kannappan. A new entrant into the DMK alliance in the state, the latter has got away with six seats, which others say, needed to be used as a bench-mark for allotting them even more seats. The MGR ADMK has put its own claims at 35, though it may settle for much less.

As DMK sources concede in this regard, the party's dependence on the NJP is real, given the strong PMK presence in the northern districts of the state, once considered the traditional stronghold of the ruling party. While the Vanniar-strong PMK has walked over to the AIADMK camp, the Mudaliar community backing the NJP has been a traditional supporter of the DMK-led Dravidian ideology since the days of the Justice Party, close to a hundred years back.

With the Dalit Panthers already on its side, the DMK wants to project the combine as a happy wedlock of upper castes and Dalits with some intermediary castes to boot. Party strategists feel that the presence of the PMK in the northern districts, and the perceived support of the militant backward class Thevars for the AIADMK in the south, "our caste combination would work out in the elections".

For his part, Karunanidhi has projected the combine as an alliance of the Dalits, backwards and MBCs, citing the presence of the Yadavs backing the Makkal Thamizh Desam, and a few other most backward communities, whose political outfits have been allotted solitary seats in the NDA combine.

Says the DMK source: "Now with the MDMK pact sealed, we are hopeful of concluding seat-sharing negotiations with other allies in a day or two, as Karunanidhi himself has said."

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