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Business Commentary/ R C Murthy

Intra- and inter-party feuds dwarf economic issues

There is little debate on crucial economic matters during this year's election campaigns.

The Congress has said it will implement the reforms in toto. The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance issued a lengthy manifesto, talked in general terms and left it there.

None in the Opposition cared to analyse it. The manifesto said the NDA would aim at 7-8 per cent annual growth, control fiscal and revenue deficits, eradicate "absolute poverty" within the first decade of 21st century.
(Click here for reports on poverty in India and Amartya Sen).

What is the definition of "absolute poverty"? Does it go by the World Bank's definition? Or does the BJP and NDA have one of their own?

The BJP's preoccupation has been how to accommodate the hardliners' points of view. It will analyse the effects of globalisation, calibrate its process by devising a timetable to suit our national conditions and requirements so as not to undermine but strengthen the national economy, the indigenous industrial base and the financial and services sectors.

The crucial aspects of the second phase of reforms are labour exit policy and restructuring of banks and financial institutions. Will the BJP encourage mergers of nationalised banks?

The manifesto and the plank of stability on which the NDA is fighting are products of bargaining between liberals led by Atal Behari Vajpayee and the hardliners, whose primus interpares (first among equals) is K N Govindacharya.

The hardliners have publicly committed to keep on the back burner for five years the contentious issues like Ram Janmabhoomi, Article 370 of the Constitution and the Common Civil Code. But the commitment is vague. What if the NDA collapses? No clear cut reply.

Two scenarios are possible. If the BJP gets an absolute majority on its own, the hardliners would itch to ditch the NDA partners. Probably, to preempt such an evantuality, Vajpayee has said the NDA would continue even in such an eventuality.

The other is hardliners' pressure to make the NDA fall apart. Such a contingency may arise if they are stymied from consolidation during the tenure of the 13th Lok Sabha.

Such an interpretation arises out of the ambiguous answers given by Govindacharya at a press conference a week ago. Recently, he had referred to the party's "bifocal vision" and asserted its commitment to what he thinks are the BJP's three pillars. Earlier, he was accused of terming Vajpayee the party's mukhota (mask).

What Govindacharya says is important because he has complete backing of the RSS. Rajendra Singh, the RSS chief, is said to have described Govindacharya as a heera (diamond).

Viewed from this angle, the hardliners' retreat is only strategic. Obviously, they will strike at an opportune moment. At this juncture, they would like to lie low, see what mileage the BJP will get by putting the liberals in the driving seat.

Vajpayee is not keeping quiet. He is binding the BJP every day to new commitments, many of which the hardliners are averse to. But age is against him. That is the hardliners' gamble.

Will Vajpayee prove his detractors within the party wrong? If he turns out to be a street fighter, there will be a battle royale. Vajpayee is on strong moral ground. After all, the BJP's win, if it comes off, will have been on the NDA's manifesto and not the BJP's.

It is clear there is nothing like absolute stability in the existing circumstances. An absolute majority for the BJP does not ensure absolute stability. Of late, one has been witnessing intra-party bickerings insead of inter-party fueds. On the other hand, a tenuous majority would keep the BJP on its toes and would make it responsive to the wishes of public at large.

R C Murthy

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